September 4, 2010
Two weeks after the election and we still don’t know who will be the next Prime Minister of Australia. We’ve had the Green’s Adam Bandt and independent Andrew Wilkie side with Labor, giving them a 74-73 lead in the race for power. However there are three independents left to make up their minds. So what happens if they split and we end up with 75-75?
I can see a few things that could happen. The first thing that happens in a new parliament is that the speaker is elected. The independents would have agreed to vote with the government on supply and confidence votes, but they could still go against them when voting for the speaker. If a speaker is elected, then the side where the speaker comes from will be down one person, as the speaker only votes in the case of a tie. If there is a tie when voting for the speaker, there is no casting vote so they would have to try another candidate. This is the point that we may find that no speaker can be elected, and therefore parliament is borked and new elections required.
Now lets say that one of the independents get voted in as speaker. This would mean that their vote is now gone, since at the first sitting their would be all 150 members. Whoever that independent member was going to side with no longer has their vote in confidence or supply matters, so the other side would be able to form government. Not very stable government though, but it would be something.
So what happens if we get past that point? Well the government of the day would have to make sure that every member of their party was there. No one could go on leave or on trips during sitting days, as that one vote will make a difference. This is basically untenable for anything other than short periods, as at the first opportunity the opposition will force a vote of no confidence. The independents might see this as political gamesmanship and side with the government to block it, even if they didn’t initially side with that party. Then again, they could raise the no confidence motion if they feel that they aren’t being given a fair shake of the sauce bottle.
Interesting times ahead I would say. I think we have to hope that there is a 77-73 final result and that the three independents all go with Labor. It’s the only way we will get some stable government. Bob Katter is looking likely to go with the Coalition though, so we could be in for a rough ride yet.
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Hung like a parliament
Two weeks after the election and we still don’t know who will be the next Prime Minister of Australia. We’ve had the Green’s Adam Bandt and independent Andrew Wilkie side with Labor, giving them a 74-73 lead in the race for power. However there are three independents left to make up their minds. So what happens if they split and we end up with 75-75?
I can see a few things that could happen. The first thing that happens in a new parliament is that the speaker is elected. The independents would have agreed to vote with the government on supply and confidence votes, but they could still go against them when voting for the speaker. If a speaker is elected, then the side where the speaker comes from will be down one person, as the speaker only votes in the case of a tie. If there is a tie when voting for the speaker, there is no casting vote so they would have to try another candidate. This is the point that we may find that no speaker can be elected, and therefore parliament is borked and new elections required.
Now lets say that one of the independents get voted in as speaker. This would mean that their vote is now gone, since at the first sitting their would be all 150 members. Whoever that independent member was going to side with no longer has their vote in confidence or supply matters, so the other side would be able to form government. Not very stable government though, but it would be something.
So what happens if we get past that point? Well the government of the day would have to make sure that every member of their party was there. No one could go on leave or on trips during sitting days, as that one vote will make a difference. This is basically untenable for anything other than short periods, as at the first opportunity the opposition will force a vote of no confidence. The independents might see this as political gamesmanship and side with the government to block it, even if they didn’t initially side with that party. Then again, they could raise the no confidence motion if they feel that they aren’t being given a fair shake of the sauce bottle.
Interesting times ahead I would say. I think we have to hope that there is a 77-73 final result and that the three independents all go with Labor. It’s the only way we will get some stable government. Bob Katter is looking likely to go with the Coalition though, so we could be in for a rough ride yet.